The rats race into the Malthusian trap
In his famous 1798 book, “Essay on the Principles of Population”, Thomas Malthus wrote about the tendency of a population to grow faster than its food supply, and to suffer a population cap as a result. Malthus’ theory of checked population growth, now known biologically as the principal of “carrying capacity”, was a key idea in the synthesis of Darwin’s theory of Natural Selection.
“Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.” (Malthus 1798)
More recently, Dr. Gregory Clark wrote “Farewell to Alms”, which delineates an economic-evolutionary theory of 19th century humans rising from the Malthusian trap into the industrial age. Many have objected to his idea that humans have genetically evolved away from a poor subsistence farming lifestyle. However, it is entirely possible that we have indeed set ourselves on a dangerous evolutionary trajectory of the Homo industrialis species.
As Dr. Clark postulates in his model, technology and education have been our life-line, they effectively rescued us from the Malthusian trap, allowing our population to explode to the 8 billion people the Earth carries today.
Increasingly, Americans have been turning to higher education for resolve during the current economic recession. A Bachelor’s degree is the new equivalent of a high school diploma, and a number of reports have shown that University and community college enrollment has increased in the last year. Academia has become something of a safe-haven for the unemployed. The idea is that becoming more educated will lead citizens out of their personal Malthusian misery.
Education and technological advancement were factors in helping to “break the Malthusian trap” in the 19th century. But can education and technology save us from a Malthusian catastrophe of epic proportions in modern times?
The population-resource curve cannot continue its steep uphill climb with H. industrialis on piggy back. American citizens of the Homo industrialis class are accustomed to leading easy comfortable lives (And I’m no exception). These specimens drive nearly everywhere, work behind large computer-screens, get their groceries and clothes in the same place, and go home to a TV that entertains them. H. industrialis is a passive species not accustomed to working directly for shelter, food, or fuel. Americans are so deep into the technological age that nearly everyone in a crowd can be seen staring into smart-phones, with an ear full of Bluetooth, their social network a glint in their eyes (I’m sure Malthus’ head would be spinning if he could see us today). While H. industrialis is very well-connected to technology and to the global society, it is very much disconnected from its impact on the resource curve and from its hunter-gatherer history.
The thing that seems reverberatingly clear is that we are not the same hardworking agrarian people we were at the onset of the industrial revolution. Today, we all expect to survive and, moreover, want to do so with affluence, comfort, and some amount of recognition (albeit a click of the “like” feedback icon on Facebook) in the process.
The H. industrialis culture is reaching a critical Malthusian threshold. Things are going to start to get uncomfortably tight at the upper limits of the population-resource curve: The predicted increase in global population to 8 billion people in the next 15 years means there will be more mouths to feed than ever before, with a lingering expectation that everyone will indeed get fed (and be able to travel, stay connected globally, and be happy). A Darwinian-style competition will ensue and will likely be the most ravenous rat race the world has ever seen.
The logical trend is a forced regression back down the mountainous curve. Our species may enter an era similar to that of the hardworking Homo sapiens, a modern era of subsistence farming or a perhaps contemporary hunter-gatherer civilization.
